LOUISVILLE, KY. - Like any thoroughbred horseman with a pulse, this should be one of the great weeks of trainer Mark Casse’s life.

Sure, his 3-year-old colt Prospective is a 30-1 long shot to win Saturday’s 138th Kentucky Derby, but he is in the race.

He may be Canada’s undisputed top trainer these days, but Casse’s roots run deep around here, back to the days when he was winning training titles at Churchill Downs in the 1980s and dreaming of capturing America’s most famous race.

So, yes, the emotions will run high for the 51-year-old on Derby day when he walks his colt over from the barn and in front of a crowd of 150,000-plus, a welcome break from the dark cloud that is threatening racing in his adopted homeland.

Even with the thrill of competing in the opening jewel of the Triple Crown, Casse cannot shake the worry over the gloom gathering around racing in Ontario. The decimating threat to the sport, delivered by the provincial government’s decision to scrap the slots at racetracks program, has Casse re-evaluating his business model.

It is Canadian racing that provided the Indiana native with the means and the visibility to acquire the type of horsepower to get to the Derby. And it is the crisis facing Canadian racing that is forcing him to ponder a different path.

“I could see us cutting back our Woodbine operation by 75%,” Casse said Wednesday morning after Prospective finished his morning exercise at America’s most famous track.

“(The proposed cutbacks) aren’t going to affect us this year so much. But it’s no different than going out and recruiting hockey players. I need to know where we are going to be playing.”

Not many in Canadian racing know where that will be.

Since the Liberal government announced its plan to scrap the slots program less than two months ago, a partnership which pumped tax dollars into the province and life into a previously stagnant industry, panic has ruled the day. Owners are leaving the business in droves and as a recent QMI Agency report sickeningly suggested, some smaller standardbred breeders admit to slaughtering foals because of the financial uncertainty.

It’s not so dire for Casse, but the place where Prospective took his first steps towards becoming a racehorse suddenly looks less fetching.

“I have 50 Canadian employees that have been with me for years,” Casse said. “That could be down to 15.

“I’ve got these (American owners) who are investing a lot of money. If we lose the purses, believe me, (the government) has no idea how it’s going to affect them.”

One of Casse’s prime investors is John Oxley, the owner of Prospective and a previous Derby winner with Monarchos in 2001. The Kentucky-based owner-breeder became a client of Casse’s when he took notice of the slot-infused purses at Woodbine and wanted in on the action. Since then, he’s spent more than $2.5 million on Canadian yearlings as well as U.S-bred stock like Prospective.

“We have kind of been pointing to and trying to buy Canadian breds, but with this, they aren’t going to be worth anything,” Casse said. “The owners have discussed it with me, most definitely. They’re concerned.”

Prospective is a prime example. Brought to Casse’s Woodbine stable as a 2-year-old, he flourished training at the Toronto track winning two races there. One of those, the Grey Stakes in October, helped the colt gain a portion of the grades stakes earnings to get him eligible for the Derby.

When it comes time to go shopping this fall, his big-money owners have told him to stay away from Canadian-breds. And if the purses truly get butchered, there’s a good chance Casse will look to stable more of his horses in New York and Kentucky with help from his son and assistant, Norman.

A lifelong horseman by birth (his father was a trainer and breeder who first took mark to the Derby in 1973 to see Secretariat in action) Casse has never come close to matching the success he has had at Woodbine. Last year, he set a single-season record at the track with 119 wins and five years in a row has won more races than any other trainer.

It is a place that is dear to his heart, as well as his pocketbook. Casse said conditions at Woodbine are ideal for racing young horses and the quality of racing has emerged to compete admirably with the product in traditional U.S. hotbeds such as Kentucky and New York.

“What Woodbine did was it gave me the ability to have people take notice of me,” Casse said. “I would never be training for Mr. Oxley and the success I was having. He saw the good racing there and wanted to be a part of it.

“It affects me less. I can pretty much go anywhere to race now with the clients I have, but I don’t want to. To develop a good horse, there’s no better place.”

Prospective, who will be ridden by Woodbine’s top jockey, Luis Contreras, will be Casse’s second Derby starter, joining Seaside Retreat, who finished 10th in 2006.

Looking to rebound from a sub-par effort in his most recent start, a sixth-place finish in the Bluegrass Stakes, Prospective appears to be thriving at Churchill Downs. He’s trained here for six weeks and while he’s only a mild threat to win, his impressive performance in the mornings has Casse enthused.

“I have a lot more confidence than I did three weeks ago, but I’m a realist also,” Casse said. “I know our horse is going to have to step up and I know he’s going to have to have the race of his life to be competitive.

“But they can’t dismiss us. He looks like he could step up the way he’s been training.”

Even in a full field of 20 horses, Casse won’t be ignored. Canada may be his base for now, but one of his first homes is a block or so from where Prospective and the 35 other horses he has here are stabled. People know of him here, both from his past accomplishments and his recent successes at Woodbine.

“I don’t think they’ve forgotten him here in Louisville,” said Churchill Downs handicapper and morning-line maker, Mike Battaglia. “Any time Mark has a horse in here, he gets a lot of respect.

“How many times has he won the top trainer award in Canada. He’s dominant up there. I don’t care what country you are in, a good trainer is a good trainer.”

And one that hopes he won’t soon be forced to look for greener pastures.

BY ROB LONGLEY ,TORONTO SUN

www.torontosun.com/2012/05/02/derby-trainer-curbs-his-enthusiasm